Xi Jinping is visiting the U.S. at the end of September.
Taking this as an opportunity, let’s try looking through a long enough window to tally up the great U.S.-China rivalry that kicked off during Trump’s first term.
My basic view: The U.S. and China are currently in an “undeclared truce.”
Compared to the smoke and fire in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, this Cold War game between the U.S. and China is actually the most stable and predictable piece of global geopolitics right now.
Back in May, seeing Trump’s restrained posture during his visit to China, followed by the Chinese military’s low-profile and pragmatic tone at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, I reached a conclusion: the heat in U.S.-China confrontation has cooled down significantly.
At least for the 2027 timeline, the panic over a “Taiwan Strait conflict” can be put on hold.
So, let’s count hands: From the first trade war in 2018 until now, what cards did each side play? Which ones actually hurt, and which ones were just paper tigers?
1. The Agriculture Card (American Agriculture)
The Play: Soybeans and corn.
The Logic: Looks like ordinary trade, but it’s actually the lifeblood of the Red State base. China swapped the U.S. for Brazil at almost zero cost, taking the high ground in negotiations. If Trump wants to keep the votes of Red State farmers, he has to sue for peace on agriculture.
Outcome: A total win for China.
2. The Mass Consumer Card (Cross-Border E-Commerce)
The Play: Shein, Temu, TikTok Shop, and cheap manufactured goods.
The Logic: No matter how many tariffs Trump slaps on, low-income Americans can’t live without these bargain products. With inflation running high, the White House doesn’t dare block them—well, it seems they’ve basically given up.
Outcome: A total win for China.
3. Rare Earths & Critical Minerals
The Play: China flashed export restrictions, and Washington immediately softened its stance.
The Logic: The U.S. high-tech defense sector and green energy supply chains simply cannot find substitutes in the short term.
Outcome: China holds the absolute upper hand.
4. Military & Geopolitics
The Play: Middle East / Eastern Europe vs. Indo-Pak / Taiwan Strait.
The Logic: America’s resolve in striking back hard in the Middle East (B-2 strikes and decapitation operations) definitely served as a warning to Beijing. On the other hand, while China tested its hardware in low-to-mid intensity conflicts, deep-rooted issues exposed by high-level military anti-corruption crackdowns, combined with a lack of combat experience, keep China cautious on Taiwan.
Outcome: Both sides are wary, locked in a strategic stalemate that actually helped cool down the Taiwan Strait. Count this as a U.S. win.
5. High-Tech & AI (Semiconductors & AI)
The Play: Nvidia bans vs. import substitution and mature-node exports.
The Logic: The U.S. pulled down the iron curtain on advanced chips, forcing China to go all-in on catching up. While high-end chips are choked, China is making a fortune exporting mature-node chips. In AI, it looks like a Soviet-U.S. “Space Race”—a neck-and-neck, high-tension “friendly match.”
Outcome: A draw (dynamic equilibrium), or the U.S. still holds a slight lead.
6. Finance & Capital
The Play: Audit crises/delisting threats for U.S.-listed Chinese stocks, plus outbound investment restrictions.
The Logic: The 20-year playbook of “Chinese startup + U.S. VC funds + U.S./HK IPO + U.S. investor exit” is officially dead. It’s been replaced by an internal loop: “hard-tech self-reliance + state-backed guidance funds + dual listings on STAR Market/HKEX.” The U.S. effectively revoked its price discovery mechanism and credibility stamp for Chinese tech startups.
Outcome: A U.S. win. (Personally, I think the “signaling effect” of American capital was what mattered most.)
7. Automotive & Clean Tech
The Play: Musk/Tesla vs. BYD, CATL, and the sea of Chinese EV makers.
The Logic: The U.S. built high tariff walls to shield its domestic automakers. China locked down the global lithium battery supply chain. Meanwhile, Musk and his Tesla play both sides with ease. America won its domestic fortress; China won the global market (especially the Global South).
Outcome: Call it a draw.
Beyond “business is business,” both sides are catching spies, launching propaganda wars, and exchanging diplomatic jabs, which can make ideological tension visible during moments of heat. It’s worth noting that China is far more sensitive to ideological bias directed at itself. If the U.S. explicitly wants to ruin things, the simplest observable metric is whether figures on the table (in the White House and Congress) start using ideological language to address China.
When Biden was campaigning, he called Xi a dictator, but as president, he dialed it back significantly. When Rubio—a hardline ideologue previously sanctioned by Beijing—became Secretary of State, Chinese officialdom subtly adjusted the translation of his surname in Chinese media, turning it into a lighthearted internet meme to wipe the slate clean. That was fascinating. Meanwhile, Trump repeatedly talks about “my good friend Xi” and rarely uses phrases like “Communist China,” even when the trade war was white-hot.
So, business is business. Chinese people actually buy into this approach.
In conclusion:
The U.S.-China trade war has reached a dynamic equilibrium.
No total decoupling, no tearing up faces.
We are nowhere near World War III.
Carry on, business as usual.